The Battle for Bhabanipur: What Do the Equations Look Like in Mamata’s Safest Seat? Why Are the 2021 Election Results Alarming for the TMC?

Kolkata: The political temperature has soared since the announcement of the schedule for the West Bengal Assembly elections. Political parties, too, have intensified their preparations. The ruling Trinamool Congress has already announced the names of its 291 candidates. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is set to enter the electoral fray from the Bhabanipur constituency. As the Assembly elections draw near, the political atmosphere in Bhabanipur, located in South Kolkata, appears to be heating up significantly.

Electoral activity is intense in the lanes and bylanes of Bhabanipur; the battle here is viewed not merely as a contest for a single seat, but rather as a referendum on the changing identity of Kolkata. In terms of nomenclature, Bhabanipur possesses a distinct spiritual history. It is regarded as the domain of Goddess Bhavani and has historically served as the sacred gateway to the revered Kalighat Temple. However, the area has since transformed from a quiet outlying settlement into a posh, upscale locality.

The social fabric of Bhabanipur is considered to be highly complex. The locality features neighborhoods inhabited by traditional Bengali families, where political discourse is a common occurrence. The Gujarati and Marwari communities are regarded as the strong economic pillars of the area. The Bhabanipur Assembly constituency also boasts a significant population of Sikhs and Muslims, as well as people hailing from Bihar. Non-Bengalis constitute approximately 70 percent of the population within the Bhabanipur Assembly constituency. Since embarking on her political journey in 1984, Mamata Banerjee has consistently viewed Bhabanipur as her impregnable stronghold.

The Alarming Results of 2021
Even within this formidable stronghold of CM Mamata, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has managed to consolidate its position in recent times. The manner in which the BJP performed in the 2021 Assembly elections has proven to be a cause for alarm for both Mamata Banerjee and the TMC. During that election, the BJP not only mounted a formidable challenge against the TMC candidate but also garnered a substantial number of votes from the wards surrounding Harish Chatterjee Street—the very location of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s residence. This time, the TMC faces the challenge of fortifying “Didi’s fortress.”

What the Voters Say
Sikandar Yadav, a rickshaw puller who has plied his trade around the Jadu Babu Bazaar area for 30 years, voiced his grievances, stating that his earnings have all but dried up. He asserted that the government ought to provide a viable path forward for people like him. Sikandar Yadav remarked that if their lives do not improve, then it makes little difference who happens to be in power. Nearby, Barkat—a local butcher—acknowledged the positive impact of social welfare schemes but added that his support regarding the future of the city’s social fabric remains conditional.

A shift is also becoming apparent within the cosmopolitan voter base of the area. Among the middle-class residents living in high-rise apartment complexes, there is palpable resentment over the lack of white-collar employment opportunities; this demographic appears to be actively seeking an alternative. Conversely, the slogan “Maa, Maati, Manush” (Mother, Soil, People) continues to resonate deeply among the poor and marginalized sections of society. Thanks to schemes such as Lakshmi Bhandar, this demographic is considered a staunch pillar of support for the Trinamool Congress. In the realm of Bengal politics, organizational strength is often regarded as a more potent force than mere rhetoric.

The Trinamool Congress’s booth-level machinery appears robust and highly active, whereas the BJP’s hopes rest largely on capitalizing on the discontent brewing within the urban middle class. The party hopes to leverage this resentment to alter the electoral equations in its favor. In Bhabanipur, a mere political wave is not considered sufficient to guarantee victory. Under the current circumstances, Bhabanipur is viewed not merely as a “safe seat,” but rather as a political battleground where the clash between traditional loyalties and modern aspirations is starkly evident. Furthermore, the imprint of polarization is clearly visible in this election’s contest.