Iran-Israel conflict sends oil market into a tailspin, Brent crude prices surpass $80

New Delhi. Following attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, tensions in the Middle East are at a peak, and this is having a direct impact on the global oil market. In retaliation, Iran launched missile and drone attacks in the Gulf region, reportedly hitting key destinations like Dubai and Abu Dhabi, as well as Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. Growing geopolitical risks have shaken the energy market.

Sharp surge in prices
Crude oil prices surged as tensions escalated. Brent crude, which closed at a seven-month high of $72 per barrel on Friday and had risen nearly 19% in the first two months of 2026, has now jumped 12% to surpass $80 per barrel.

Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) also rose by nearly 8%, surpassing $70 per barrel. Following Israel’s 12-day offensive, Brent rose above the $80 mark for the first time since June last year.

Supply Threat
Amid the tensions, Iran’s oil production capacity has also come under scrutiny. Iran is the fourth-largest producer in the OPEC+ alliance and accounts for approximately 12% of the group’s total production. It has the capacity to produce approximately 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, representing approximately 3% of global production. The country’s largest refinery has a capacity of 500,000 barrels per day. If the conflict continues, it could have a significant impact on global supply.

The Strait of Hormuz has become a source of concern.
The greatest concern is the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply and a large amount of LNG pass. Although Iran’s Foreign Minister has clarified that there is no intention to close this route, conflicting reports have increased market uncertainty. Nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports also travel to China via this route, further increasing its strategic importance.

OPEC+ Increased Production
Amidst the crisis, OPEC+ decided at its monthly meeting to accelerate production growth from April. Key members Saudi Arabia and Russia will release an additional 206,000 barrels of oil per day into the market from April. This increase is nearly one and a half times the 137,000 barrels per day announced last December.

Analysts believe that if the situation worsens or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could reach $100 per barrel. However, prices may stabilize if tensions ease. Currently, the Middle East war has created uncertainty in the global energy market and a new risk of inflation.