Himanta Firmly Entrenched in Assam, Thalapathy Vijay Makes an Entry… Find Out Who Is the Top Choice for CM in Four States

New Delhi: Assembly elections in West Bengal concluded on April 29 with the second phase of voting. Following this, survey agencies have released their exit poll projections for the assembly elections held across four states—including Bengal—and the Union Territory of Puducherry. It is worth noting that assembly elections were held in Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Puducherry, the official results for which will be released simultaneously by the Election Commission on May 4.

Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after voting, in which voters are asked whom they voted for; based on this data, survey agencies project the probable election results. Aaj Tak has also broadcast the Axis My India exit poll figures regarding the elections in Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry. This survey agency is scheduled to release its exit poll for the West Bengal elections on April 30.

In its exit polls for the four states, Axis My India surveyed not only which party or alliance is likely to form the government but also the public’s preference for the post of Chief Minister. According to this survey, Himanta Biswa Sarma is the preferred choice for the CM’s post among 42% of the people in Assam, while Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi was cited as the first choice for the top job by 32% of the respondents.

Himanta: The Top Choice for CM in Assam
According to the Axis My India exit poll, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to achieve a hat-trick of victories in Assam. The NDA is projected to secure between 88 and 100 seats, while the Congress party may be limited to a tally of 24 to 36 seats. Other parties are projected to win between 0 and 3 seats. It should be noted that the assembly elections in Assam, covering 126 seats, were concluded in a single phase on April 9. The BJP-led NDA has been in power in Assam since 2016.

Vijayan: The Top Choice for CM in Kerala
According to an Axis My India survey, Pinarayi Vijayan remains the people’s top choice for the post of Chief Minister in Kerala. The survey indicates that 33% of respondents wish to see Vijayan serve as Kerala’s Chief Minister once again. As per the Axis My India survey, Congress leader and Leader of the Opposition in the Kerala Legislative Assembly, V.D. Satheesan, is the preferred choice for the CM’s post among 22% of the respondents. However, exit polls for the Kerala elections suggest that Vijayan appears poised to lose his seat.

According to the Axis My India exit poll, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is set to return to power in Kerala, while Vijayan’s party—the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF)—is projected to face defeat. Axis My India has projected that the UDF will secure between 78 and 90 seats in Kerala, whereas the LDF is expected to win between 49 and 62 seats. Other parties or independents could secure between 0 and 3 seats. It is worth noting that the Kerala Legislative Assembly comprises 140 seats.

Vijay: The Top Choice for CM in Tamil Nadu
The Axis My India exit poll for the Tamil Nadu elections suggests a major political upset is on the horizon. The poll indicates that the charisma of Vijay—the actor-turned-politician—is likely to hold sway. According to the Axis My India exit poll, Vijay’s party—the Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), which is contesting elections for the first time—is projected to win between 98 and 120 seats. Meanwhile, the M.K. Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is expected to secure between 92 and 110 seats. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is projected to win between 22 and 32 seats. The Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly consists of 234 seats.

Regarding the preference for the Chief Minister’s post in Tamil Nadu, the Axis My India survey indicates that Vijay holds a lead over M.K. Stalin. According to the survey, 37% of respondents identified Vijay as their first choice for the post of Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. Meanwhile, 35% of people selected M.K. Stalin as their primary preference for the Chief Ministerial role. In the Axis My India survey, AIADMK leader Palaniswami emerged as the first choice for the CM post for 22% of the respondents.

Rangasamy: The Top Choice for CM in Puducherry
According to the Axis My India exit poll, it appears that a National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, led by the All India N.R. Congress, is poised to form in Puducherry. The NDA is projected to secure 16 to 20 seats with a vote share of 40%. Conversely, the INDIA bloc—led by the DMK and Congress—is estimated to win 6 to 8 seats with a 30% vote share, while other parties could account for 3 to 7 seats. According to the Axis My India survey, All India N.R. Congress leader N. Rangasamy is the first choice for the Chief Minister’s post for 42% of the people in Puducherry. TVK chief Vijay is the first choice for the CM post for 17% of the respondents.